Six major changes in the competitive landscape of the lithium battery market in 2018
In 2018, lithium battery companies are facing various pressures such as declining subsidies, declining gross profit margins, and rising raw materials. At the same time, the industry concentration has further intensified. 2018 will become a watershed for the power battery industry. disuse. Specifically, the following six major changes occurred in the power lithium battery industry in 2018:
1. Foreign-funded enterprises have made a comeback, and industry competition has intensified.
In the field of power lithium batteries, Japanese and Korean companies have a leading edge in technology and have long occupied a dominant position. In recent years, China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy has kept foreign companies out of the door, and Japanese and Korean companies that once wanted to make a big splash in the Chinese market have failed. However, in the face of China's huge market, Japanese and Korean companies will not be easy. Give up, just wait for a change in China's policy, and it will make a comeback.
According to the 307th batch of catalogs announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently, Dongfeng Yueda Kia K5 and Dongfeng Renault models are equipped with batteries provided by Nanjing LG Chem (LG Chem), which shows that foreign brand power batteries have begun to re-enter the Chinese market.
Japanese and Korean battery companies are also resuming to increase investment in China. In early April, LG Chem and Huayou Cobalt invested a total of 4 billion yuan to establish two joint ventures. Samsung is not behind either. A few days ago, Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Li Jae-yong held talks with BYD Wang Chuanfu, or cooperated in the automotive electronics business. Panasonic will also cooperate with Tesla to build a super battery factory in China.
Japanese and Korean companies are coming aggressively, and domestic battery companies will face more intense competition.
2. The horizontal layout of upstream and downstream has intensified the competition for resources.
"Soldiers and horses have not moved, food and grass go first." Since 2018, the battery industry has increased its layout of upstream raw materials, and the battle for resources has intensified. Battery companies including Ningde Times, BYD, and Dynavolt Technology, as well as car companies such as Volkswagen, BMW, Great Wall, and Tesla, have increased their upstream raw materials through equity participation or direct purchase.
The price fluctuation of lithium battery raw materials will bring considerable uncertainties to lithium battery car companies. In order to ensure sufficient raw material supply so as not to be in a passive situation, invest in upstream raw materials, or sign long-term agreements with them, and become the industry's common choose.
At the same time, enterprises in the industrial chain such as positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, and separators have also launched horizontal extension layouts. For example, positive electrode material companies have increased the layout of cobalt lithium ore and precursor materials, negative electrode material companies have expanded graphitization production capacity, and electrolyte companies have set foot in Lithium hexafluorophosphate and upstream raw materials, and diaphragm companies have begun to build their own coating production capacity.
3. Diversified layout to expand market segments.
Under the influence of rising raw materials and declining subsidies, the profitability of power battery companies has generally declined. The situation faced in 2018 is even more severe. The fierce competition environment and huge survival pressure have caused battery companies to actively adjust their strategic layout. Expand market segments and realize diversified layout to become the common choice of battery enterprises.
Sunwoda's power battery layout is based on batteries, PACK, and BMS as its business core, and through strategic cooperation with upstream raw material companies, battery material companies, and downstream new energy vehicle companies, it creates a closed-loop industrial chain. Sunwoda, which is already a leader in consumer batteries, is also actively developing the power battery market to realize walking on "two legs". Companies that originally focused on a certain field also began to seek market expansion and put their eggs in several baskets to reduce risks. Power battery companies that focus on the field of new energy buses and special vehicles have stated in 2018 that they will enter the new energy passenger vehicle market.
At the same time, a number of companies told Lithium Power Big Data that in order to reduce the impact of the subsidy reduction on the company, they began to deploy in areas such as energy storage with less subsidies or no subsidies.
4. There are fewer crossovers, and it is more difficult to enter the game
Since 2018, investment and mergers and acquisitions in the power battery industry are still hot. According to the statistics of lithium battery big data, since 2018, there have been more than 30 investment and mergers and acquisitions in the lithium battery industry chain, but the investment companies are still mostly companies with strong capital in the industry. Compared with previous years, The number of cross-border entrants has decreased a lot.
Under the situation of declining subsidies and wildly rising raw material prices, power battery companies are facing multiple pressures, and industry competition has intensified. With the reduction of policy dividends, new cross-border companies cannot compete with companies with strong technology accumulation and years of experience in the industry. For new crossovers, on the one hand, they have missed the best time to enter the game. On the other hand, the competition pattern of the power battery industry has basically formed, and the risk of blind entry has increased. Next, power batteries will be the battlefield of "professional players".
5. Survival of the fittest, further concentration of the industry
At present, the domestic power battery market is characterized by high concentration. Since 2018, the industry concentration has further increased, and the industry reshuffle has intensified. On the one hand, the energy density of power batteries continues to rise, raising the threshold for products to enter the market and accelerating the elimination of enterprises; on the other hand, cost reduction has become the general trend, and the pressure of price reduction is transmitted to the upstream step by step, and power batteries are gradually changing from a huge profit industry to a meager profit industry .
With the in-depth adjustment of national policies, the concentration of power battery industry will continue to increase. In 2017, the installed capacity of the top 10 power battery companies accounted for 72%, and only the top five accounted for 60%. Ningde Times accounted for nearly 30%. Entering 2018, the dominance of one company is even more obvious. CATL accounted for 50% of installed capacity in the first quarter of 2018, while top10 power battery companies accounted for 90% of installed capacity.
In the future, most of the production capacity of the power battery industry will be concentrated in a few large companies. The battery industry will be centralized, and the industry will survive the fittest. The first echelon will become bigger and stronger, while the low-end production capacity of second- and third-tier companies will face the crisis of being eliminated.
6. Two-line parallel, lithium iron phosphate "resurgence"
As new energy vehicles continue to put forward higher requirements for battery energy density, ternary batteries are considered to be the mainstream technology development route in the future. Affected by this, the market share of lithium iron phosphate has gradually declined. Even BYD, which has always adhered to the lithium iron phosphate route, had to change its direction and replace lithium iron phosphate with ternary in the field of passenger cars.
With the adjustment of the subsidy policy in 2018, cost has also become an important selection factor for car companies. Under this background, lithium iron phosphate may "resurrect". Compared with ternary batteries, lithium iron phosphate has a longer service life and lower cost. It has a broad market space in the commercial vehicle market, low-end car market, energy storage and communication markets that pursue cost performance. In the next few years, high-performance iron phosphate will Lithium batteries show strong vitality, and the development of energy storage and communication industries will also drive the increase in demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
For a long period of time in the future, the two technical routes of ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries will be paralleled. The high-end passenger car market that pursues quality and performance will use ternary batteries, while the low-end passenger cars and commercial vehicles that pursue cost performance will use ternary batteries. Lithium iron phosphate battery. At present, the mini-car market space is not yet saturated, and the energy storage market is also on the eve of the outbreak. In the main battlefield of lithium iron phosphate, its demand is still strong.
